Frequently Asked Questions




ICAO Long Term Forecast application is a comprehensive online tool that enables user to view and generate operational (departures, ASK) and traffic (passengers, RPK, load factors) forecasts at multiple levels of granularity.
The forecasts can be generated at the country pair level , route group and , regional level, and can also be grouped by country/region of departure.
The ICAO traffic forecast uses rigorous econometric modeling developed by the Multi-disciplinary Working Group on Long-term Traffic Forecasts (MDWG-LTF) comprising experts from Members States and international organizations. The latest revision of the methodology documentation is available for download.
Air traffic data used for the forecasts modelling are sourced from the reported data by States through ICAO’s statistics programme, and statistics published by national offices, as well as data collected from other external sources. Historical data is available from 1995 to 2015 by air carrier at city pair, country pair and route group and regional level.
It includes the following:
  • 50 passenger route groups: 40 international and 10 domestic
  • 6 cargo regions broken down by domestic and international traffic
Passenger forecasts are detailed at country level while cargo forecasts are available at regional level.